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Prediction for CME (2021-04-22T05:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-04-22T05:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16772/-1
CME Note: Associated with an eruption visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO AIA 171/193 beginning 2021-04-22T04:21Z, and associated with C3.8 flare beginning at 2021-04-22T04:10 and peaking at 2021-04-22T04:35Z. There is some northeastern deflection apparent in the available EUV imagery. Arrival signaled by sudden rise in Btotal from 5 to 8 nT at 2021-04-2422:24Z, followed shortly by an increase in Btotal to above 10 nT, accompanied by jumps in velocity, density, and temperature as measured by DSCOVR.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-24T22:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-04-25T01:59Z
Prediction Method: SPM
Prediction Method Note:

Shock speed: 803 km/s
Solar wind speed: 400 km/s
Duration time: 0.5hr

Lead Time: 37.97 hour(s)
Difference: -3.58 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2021-04-23T08:26Z

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